Central Bank Bias Scoreboards

Bank Rate held at 3.75% by 6-3; a higher energy-driven inflation path and full gilt-unwind plan strengthened the hawkish signal.

Focus: Energy pass-through, wage setting, labour slack, second-round effects and QT execution.

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Taiwan

Last: 2026-09-17Next: 2026-12-17

CBC Taiwan

+4.8Hawkish hold, two hike dissents

Score updated: 17 Sep 2026Previous: +3.8 on 18 Jun 2026

Rates held, but two directors supported a hike and growth and 2026 inflation forecasts rose sharply; 2027 disinflation and credit easing provide offsets.

Focus: Vote split, AI demand, inflation forecasts, housing credit, FX and financial stability.

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United States

Last: 2026-09-16Next: 2026-10-28

FOMC

+9.6Exceptionally hawkish hike

Score updated: 16 Sep 2026 hikePrevious: +8.9 on 11 Sep 2026 data

FOMC unanimously raised rates to 3.75-4.00%; the end-2026 median rose to 4.1%, implying another hike, with stronger growth and higher inflation forecasts.

Focus: October minutes, inflation breadth, labour data, commodities and the 28 October decision.

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Japan

Last: 2026-09-10Next: 2026-09-18

BoJ

+8.8Very hawkish pre-meeting chorus

Score updated: 10 Sep 2026 speechesPrevious: +8.5 on 27 Aug 2026 speech

Takata and Masu reinforced calls for further increases, with Masu urging prompt progress away from negative real rates.

Focus: Rate path, yen, wages, import prices and September decision.

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Euro Area

Last: 2026-09-10Next: 2026-10-29

ECB

+8.5Very hawkish hike

Score updated: 10 Sep 2026 hikePrevious: +6.5 on 27 Aug 2026 account

ECB raised all three rates 25 bp, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as August inflation accelerated and medium-term projections moved higher.

Focus: Energy propagation, wages, expectations, growth and October guidance.

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Australia

Last: 2026-09-08Next: 2026-09-29

RBA

+6.3Hawkish pre-meeting warning

Score updated: 8 Sep 2026 speechPrevious: +5.6 on 26 Aug 2026 CPI

Hauser said inflation is too high and asked whether more tightening is needed; recent growth and inflation were slightly stronger than expected.

Focus: Fuel pass-through, demand, labour, housing, consumption and September decision.

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Philippines

Last: 2026-09-04Next: 2026-10-22

BSP

+8.4Very hawkish, inflation easing

Score updated: 4 Sep 2026 CPIPrevious: +8.6 on 28 Aug 2026 forecast

August headline/core inflation eased to 6.1%/4.1%, but both remain high and measured increases are still part of the response.

Focus: Food/weather, fuel, wages, peso, expectations and October decision.

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Malaysia

Last: 2026-09-03Next: 2026-11-05

BNM

+1.2Neutral-firm hold

Score updated: 3 Sep 2026Previous: +0.8 on 9 Jul 2026

OPR held at 2.75%; first-half growth of 5.7% and a roughly 5% full-year outlook offset contained inflation.

Focus: OPR, growth/inflation ranges, ringgit and external risk.

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New Zealand

Last: 2026-09-02Next: 2026-10-28

RBNZ

+7.6Strong hawkish hike + path

Score updated: 2 Sep 2026 hikePrevious: +5.7 on 8 Jul 2026

RBNZ raised OCR to 2.75% and projected a gradual rise toward 3.2%, while weak demand keeps the path data-dependent.

Focus: OCR track, non-tradables CPI, unemployment, spending and October decision.

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South Korea

Last: 2026-08-27Next: 2026-10-22

BoK

+8.8Very hawkish hike + path

Score updated: 27 Aug 2026Previous: +8.4 on 16 Jul 2026

BoK raised the Base Rate to 3.00% in a 6-1 vote; 16 of 21 six-month dots were above 3.00%, and the 2026/2027 growth forecasts rose to 3.3%/2.9%.

Focus: Base Rate path, core-inflation forecasts, semiconductor growth, housing debt and October decision.

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Thailand

Last: 2026-08-26Next: 2026-10-28

BoT

-1.0Dovish accommodative hold

Score updated: 26 Aug 2026Previous: -0.4 on 24 Jun 2026

BoT unanimously held at 1.00%; inflation was revised lower and growth remains low and uneven despite technology-cycle support.

Focus: MPC minutes, tourism, inflation expectations, SME credit, baht and demand.

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China

Last: 2026-08-25Next: 2026-09-21 est.

PBoC

-1.2Accommodative, mixed liquidity

Score updated: 25 Aug 2026 MLFPrevious: -1.2 on 20 Aug 2026 LPR

A RMB500bn one-year MLF was smaller than maturities, while broader medium-term operations kept monthly liquidity additions positive.

Focus: LPR, MLF, RRR, OMO, property support, credit impulse, CNY.

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Indonesia

Last: 2026-08-19Next: 2026-09-23

BI

+4.2Hawkish stability hold

Score updated: 19 Aug 2026Previous: +4.8 on 22 Jul 2026

BI held at 5.75% for a second meeting. Rupiah defence remains hawkish, while in-target inflation, resilient growth and liquidity support lower the score.

Focus: BI Rate, rupiah stability, imported inflation, portfolio flows, liquidity transmission.

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India

Last: 2026-08-05Next: 2026-10-07

RBI

+4.2Hawkish minutes

Score updated: 19 Aug 2026 minutesPrevious: +3.2 on 5 Aug 2026

August minutes preserved a live hike option and indicated little or no room for further easing, while benign underlying inflation caps the score.

Focus: Food/fuel pass-through, core CPI, monsoon, rupee and October decision.

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Singapore

Last: 2026-07-27Next: 2026-10 pending

MAS

+6.2Surprise hawkish FX tightening

Score updated: 27 Jul 2026Previous: +5.4 on 14 Apr 2026

MAS increased the S$NEER appreciation rate very slightly for a second consecutive tightening; the move surprised a strong hold consensus.

Focus: S$NEER slope, external price pass-through, core inflation, AI-linked growth, October guidance.

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Sorted by latest policy meeting or policy fixing date. Next dates marked "est." are estimates from regular meeting cadence where a clean official calendar was not available during this refresh. Forecast blocks use the latest official forecast vintage when a central bank does not update projections at every meeting.

18 Sep 2026 Refresh Audit

Official central-bank pages and targeted official searches were checked through 08:35 HKT on 18 September. The 17 September BoE and CBC Taiwan decisions are included, including the CBC governor's confirmation of two directors supporting a hike. The BoJ decision due later today had not yet been published at the cutoff and remains pending.

Bank	Latest item found / checked	Event type	Dashboard action
FOMC	16 Sep 2026: unanimous 25 bp hike to 3.75-4.00%; end-2026 rate median raised to 4.1%, 2026 GDP to 2.3% and PCE/core PCE to 3.7%/3.4%.	Decision / SEP	Score raised to +9.6: delivered action and a materially higher-for-longer path create an exceptionally hawkish reset.
RBA	8 Sep 2026: Hauser said inflation is too high and recent inflation and growth were slightly stronger than expected, while stressing a hike is not inevitable.	Deputy Governor interview	Score raised to +6.3: stronger pre-meeting warning, capped by weak housing and consumer confidence.
CBC Taiwan	17 Sep 2026: rates held with two directors supporting a hike; 2026 GDP/CPI/core CPI forecasts raised to 11.48%/2.03%/2.16%; selected housing-credit controls moderately eased.	Decision / vote / forecasts / credit controls	Score raised to +4.8: hike dissents and a hotter macro outlook outweigh below-2% 2027 inflation and targeted credit easing.
BoE	17 Sep 2026: 6-3 hold at 3.75%; energy raised the inflation path and the MPC set a multi-year plan to unwind the remaining gilt stock.	Decision / forecasts / QT	Score raised to +6.9: persistent hike votes, stronger activity, upside risks and QT outweigh domestic disinflation.
ECB	10 Sep 2026: all three key rates raised 25 bp; August inflation was 3.3% and 2027-28 inflation projections were revised higher.	Decision / forecasts / inflation	Score raised to +8.5: delivered action and a more persistent price path dominate downside growth risks.
BoK	27 Aug 2026: official release confirmed a 6-1 hike to 3.00%, 16 of 21 six-month dots above the current rate, growth at 3.3%/2.9% and core CPI at 2.5%/2.5% for 2026/2027.	Central bank decision / forecasts / dot plot	Score remains +8.8: the upward rate path and broad forecast upgrades reinforce the cycle, partly offset by one hold dissent.
RBNZ	2 Sep 2026: OCR raised unanimously to 2.75%; central path rises gradually toward 3.2% over two years.	Decision / Monetary Policy Statement	Score raised to +7.6: a second hike and explicit path outweigh weak domestic demand.
BoJ	Official statement list checked at 08:35 HKT on 18 Sep; the 17-18 September decision had not yet been published.	Calendar / release scan	Score remains +8.8 on the pre-meeting speech chorus; today's decision is pending.
RBI	19 Aug 2026: August minutes preserved flexibility, identified little or no further easing room and kept a possible hike case live.	Meeting minutes	Score raised to +4.2: explicit tightening optionality, capped by a unanimous hold and benign underlying inflation.
BI	Official releases checked through 18 Sep; next policy decision is 23 September.	Calendar / release scan	Score unchanged at +4.2 pending the meeting.
BoT	9 Sep edited minutes from the August meeting were published; no new policy action followed.	Meeting minutes / release scan	Score unchanged at -1.0; the accommodative hold remains the anchor.
BNM	3 Sep 2026: OPR held at 2.75%; first-half growth was 5.7%, while seven-month headline/core inflation averaged 1.8%/2.0%.	Decision / growth / inflation	Score raised to +1.2: stronger growth firms the hold, while contained inflation caps it.
PBoC	Official policy pages checked through 18 Sep; no new rate-setting signal after the 25 August MLF operation.	Official-site scan	Score unchanged at -1.2.
BSP	4 Sep 2026: August headline/core inflation eased to 6.1%/4.1%, with year-to-date inflation at 5.2%.	Official CPI release	Score eased to +8.4: modest improvement, but inflation remains high after a third hike.
MAS	Official releases checked through 18 Sep; no new policy review after 27 July.	Official-site scan	Score unchanged at +6.2.