Growth resilience, exports and tourism reduce the need for cuts.
Overall bias
+1.2
Neutral-firm holdStronger growth offsets contained inflation.
OPR
2.75%
HoldDecision matched economist expectations.
2026 growth
~5%
H1 5.7%Resilient domestic demand limits cut urgency.
Inflation
1.8%
Core 2.0%Seven-month averages remain contained.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1.2 | 3 Sep 2026 | +0.8 | 9 Jul 2026 |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: BNM remains close to neutral, but the September hold reads firmer because first-half growth of 5.7% and a roughly 5% full-year outlook reduce the case for easing.
Forecast angle: BNM often provides annual growth and inflation ranges rather than a full meeting-by-meeting projection table. Track changes in those ranges and the risk language around subsidies, FX, and global trade.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Policy action | 0.0 | OPR held. |
| Growth | +0.8 | Domestic demand, exports and tourism remain supportive. |
| Inflation | -0.4 | Contained inflation reduces tightening need. |
| Ringgit/external | +0.3 | FX and external uncertainty keep caution. |
| Guidance | +0.1 | Current stance described as suitable. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Meeting | Action | Forecast / language comparison | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Mar 2026 | OPR held | Language balanced growth resilience with contained inflation. | +0.2 | Neutral hold |
| 7 May 2026 | OPR held | Domestic demand still supportive; inflation contained; external and ringgit risks watched. | +0.4 | Near neutral hold |
| 9 Jul 2026 | OPR held at 2.75% | Growth projected at 4-5%; domestic demand, exports and tourism resilient; inflation still contained. | +0.8 | Neutral-firm hold |
| 3 Sep 2026 | OPR held at 2.75% | First-half growth 5.7%; 2026 near 5%; headline/core inflation averaged 1.8%/2.0%. | +1.2 | Neutral-firm hold |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Forecast item | Latest meeting read | Previous baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | First-half growth was 5.7%; 2026 is expected around 5% with resilient growth continuing in 2027. | July cited a 4-5% range. | Stronger growth is mildly hawkish because it reduces cut urgency. |
| Headline inflation | Headline inflation averaged 1.8% in the first seven months. | Prior meetings described inflation as manageable. | Contained inflation lowers score. |
| Core inflation | Score whether underlying inflation remains stable or broadens. | Previous language focused on manageable cost pressures. | Core broadening would be hawkish. |
| Ringgit / external | FX and global trade uncertainty are key risk lines. | Previous meetings watched external demand and financial-market volatility. | Ringgit stress lifts the score. |
| Policy stance | Current setting remains consistent with price stability and sustainable growth; BNM remains vigilant. | No strong path signal in July. | Neutral-firm guidance keeps score close to zero. |
When BNM does not publish new forecasts in a meeting statement, carry the latest annual growth/inflation range and compare the risk-language delta.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
Currency stress can keep BNM cautious even with contained inflation.
A contained inflation outlook prevents a hawkish read.
The action does not move the score much.
The statement is best treated as neutral until forecasts shift.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | Latest meeting | Previous meeting / baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Hold was the base case and matched economist expectations. | Earlier meetings also gave little reason for surprise action. | Minimal surprise. |
| Previous action | Latest OPR held at 2.75%. | Previous OPR also held with balanced language. | Continuity keeps score near neutral-firm. |
| Forecast communication | First-half growth was 5.7%; 2026 growth around 5%; seven-month headline/core inflation 1.8%/2.0%. | July cited 4-5% growth with contained inflation. | Stronger growth lifts the score modestly. |
| Watch list | Subsidy changes, ringgit, global trade, core inflation, domestic demand and the 5 November decision. | Same variables drove previous BNM caution. | Subsidy-related CPI pass-through could lift score. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| BNM 3 September statement | Official OPR hold, growth, inflation and policy-stability assessment. | BNM statement |
| BNM MPC schedule | Confirmed 5 November next decision. | BNM schedule |
Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.