Underlying inflation did not share the headline CPI improvement.
Overall bias
+6.3
Hawkish pre-meeting warningInflation is too high and another hike remains live.
Cash rate
4.35%
Unanimous holdThree earlier 2026 hikes are still transmitting.
July CPI
3.5%
Core 3.6%Headline fell 0.3pp; trimmed mean was unchanged.
Next meeting
29 Sep
ConfirmedMeeting runs 28-29 September.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| +6.3 | 8 Sep 2026 | +5.6 | 26 Aug 2026 |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: the score rises to +6.3. Hauser's pre-meeting warning and slightly stronger-than-expected growth and inflation keep further tightening clearly live.
Hike trigger: a further increase is live if upside inflation risks materialise or demand does not slow enough to restore balance.
Dovish offset: the Deputy Governor said a hike is not inevitable; weak housing, consumer confidence and uneven activity give the Board room to wait.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Latest action | 0.0 | Cash rate held unanimously at 4.35%. |
| Inflation concern | +1.8 | Headline eased to 3.5%, but trimmed-mean inflation stayed at 3.6%. |
| Demand gap | +1.4 | Demand still exceeds supply and must slow further. |
| Guidance | +1.6 | Another hike is explicitly live if upside risks materialise. |
| Prior tightening | +1.0 | Three 2026 hikes removed the previous year's easing. |
| Activity offset | -0.8 | Spending and housing softened, while unemployment reached 4.5%. |
| Risk balance | +0.4 | Inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Event | Action | Signal | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 May 2026 | +25 bp to 4.35% | Third 2026 hike and higher inflation forecast. | +7.4 | Hawkish hike |
| 16-30 Jun 2026 | Hold / minutes | Restrictive stance and live hike option. | +5.8 | Hawkish hold |
| 28 Jul 2026 | Governor speech / Q&A | Inflation too high; demand above supply; August hike remains live. | +6.4 | Hawkish warning |
| 11 Aug 2026 | Hold at 4.35% | Unanimous hold; inflation still too high and a further hike remains conditional. | +5.8 | Strong hawkish hold |
| 26 Aug 2026 | July CPI update | Headline eased to 3.5%, but trimmed mean held at 3.6%. | +5.6 | Hawkish data validation |
| 8 Sep 2026 | Deputy Governor interview | Inflation remains too high; recent growth and inflation were slightly stronger than expected, but a hike is not inevitable. | +6.3 | Hawkish warning |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Item | 11 August decision | Previous guidance | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | July headline CPI eased to 3.5%, while trimmed mean was unchanged at 3.6%. | June headline was 3.8% and trimmed mean 3.6%. | Softer headline is offset by sticky core inflation. |
| Demand | Demand needs to remain subdued to restore balance. | Demand was judged above supply. | Supports a restrictive setting. |
| Consumption / housing | Spending is slowing and housing activity has declined. | Both were already weakening before the meeting. | Dovish offset and evidence of transmission. |
| Labour market | Conditions eased a little more than expected. | Earlier guidance focused more on excess demand. | Adds room to wait. |
| Policy path | Inflation is not expected near the target midpoint until early 2028; another hike remains conditional. | The July speech called the August choice live. | Keeps tightening optionality open. |
The August decision incorporated the latest forecast assessment. The next policy meeting is 28-29 September, with the decision announced on 29 September.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
The annual rate fell from 3.8%, modestly reducing near-term urgency.
Further slowing is necessary to relieve inflation pressure.
The Board may tighten again if upside inflation risks materialise.
Transmission is working and argues against automatic tightening.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | 8 September update | Previous anchor | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy setting | Cash rate held at 4.35% unanimously. | June also held after three hikes. | No fresh tightening, but restriction persists. |
| Board tone | Inflation remains too high and risks are tilted upward. | July guidance kept a hike option open. | Strong hawkish validation despite the hold. |
| Activity | Spending, housing and labour conditions have softened. | Earlier forecasts anticipated slower growth. | Caps the score. |
| July data | Headline CPI 3.5%, trimmed mean 3.6% and unemployment 4.5%. | August decision had emphasized upside inflation risks and some labour easing. | Mixed data lower the score only slightly. |
| September guidance | Hauser said inflation is too high and asked whether more tightening is needed; a hike is not inevitable. | August kept a conditional hike option open. | A stronger warning raises the score without pre-committing the Board. |
| Watch list | National accounts, fuel pass-through, demand and the 29 September decision. | July focused on whether inflation would fall sustainably. | A renewed upside surprise could trigger another hike. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| RBA 11 August decision | Official cash-rate hold, inflation assessment, activity offsets and conditional hike guidance. | RBA August decision |
| ABS July 2026 CPI | Headline and trimmed-mean inflation update. | ABS July CPI |
| ABS July 2026 labour force | Unemployment and labour-market update. | ABS labour force |
| RBA 28 July speech Q&A | Pre-meeting guidance on inflation, demand and restrictiveness. | RBA Q&A |
| ABS June-quarter national accounts | GDP growth, household saving and terms-of-trade update. | ABS national accounts |
| RBA Deputy Governor Hauser interview | Latest inflation, growth, upside-risk and conditional-hike guidance. | RBA Hauser interview |
| RBA calendar | Confirmed 28-29 September meeting and announcement date. | RBA calendar |
Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.