BoE Bias Scoreboard - 17 September 2026

Overall bias

+6.9

Strong hawkish hold + QT

Three hike votes, higher inflation risk and a full gilt-runoff plan.

Bank Rate

3.75%

Hold

Six members preferred no change.

Vote

6-3

Three hike votes

Greene, Mann and Pill preferred 4.00%.

Next meeting

5 Nov

Confirmed

Next MPC decision and Monetary Policy Report.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+6.9	17 Sep 2026	+5.9	30 Jul 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: this is a stronger hawkish hold. The 6-3 vote was unchanged, but the energy shock lifted the inflation path, activity surprised upward and several hold voters said hikes could be needed if upside risks crystallise.

Balance-sheet signal: the MPC unanimously set a multi-year plan to reduce its gilt holdings to zero, averaging about GBP46 billion a year through September 2034, including GBP20 billion of annual active sales.

Dovish offset: unemployment was 4.9%, private-sector regular pay growth slowed to 2.9%, and the Committee saw little material evidence of second-round effects so far.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	0.0	Bank Rate held at 3.75%.
Vote split	+1.8	Three members preferred an immediate 25 bp hike.
Inflation and energy	+2.0	Higher oil and gas prices lift the near-term inflation path and skew risks upward.
Guidance	+1.1	The MPC stands ready to act; several hold voters said hikes may be needed if risks crystallise.
Balance sheet	+1.0	The remaining gilt stock will be unwound under a multi-year QT plan.
Domestic disinflation	-0.8	Labour slack, slower pay and limited second-round effects cap the score.

Meeting Scorecard

Meeting	Action	Vote / signal	Bias score	Read
30 Apr 2026	Hold at 3.75%	Energy scenarios raised the bar for cuts.	+2.5	Hawkish lean
18 Jun 2026	Hold at 3.75%	7-2 hold; two preferred a hike.	+2.6	Mild hawkish hold
30 Jul 2026	Hold at 3.75%	6-3 hold; three preferred a hike and risks tilted upward.	+5.9	Strong hawkish hold
17 Sep 2026	Hold at 3.75%	6-3 hold; higher energy risks and a full gilt-unwind plan.	+6.9	Strong hawkish hold + QT

Forecasts / Projection Table

Item	September 2026 read	July 2026 baseline	Bias implication
CPI	About 3.75% in 2026 Q4 and slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1.	July projected about 3.2% in 2026 Q4.	Large near-term upgrade is hawkish.
Energy	Brent was up 36% and UK wholesale gas 78% since July.	Lower commodity assumptions underpinned the July forecast.	A stronger direct inflation impulse and upside tail risk.
Activity	Q2 GDP rose 0.4%; Q3 growth projected at 0.4%.	Q3 was projected at 0.1% in July.	Stronger demand removes some downside insurance.
Labour and pay	Unemployment 4.9%; private regular pay growth 2.9%.	July already showed labour-market loosening.	Clear dovish offset.
Second-round effects	Little material evidence so far, but risks have increased.	July also found limited evidence.	Current restraint caps the score; the risk distribution remains hawkish.

The September minutes updated the near-term assessment against the July Monetary Policy Report. The score reflects both the unchanged 6-3 vote and the materially higher energy-driven inflation path.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Vote +1.8Three members wanted 4%

The July hike minority remained intact.

Risk +2.0Energy lifted the inflation path

The Committee now sees CPI around 3.75% in late 2026 and above 4% in early 2027.

QT +1.0Gilt stock heads to zero

A multi-year plan adds GBP20 billion of active sales annually alongside maturities.

Domestic -0.8Slack and slower pay persist

Unemployment at 4.9% and slower private pay growth restrain the signal.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	17 September outcome	July comparison	Bias implication
Decision	Bank Rate held at 3.75%.	Also held in July.	No delivered rate tightening.
Vote	6-3, with Greene, Mann and Pill preferring 4.00%.	Also 6-3 in July.	A durable hike bloc keeps the stance hawkish.
Risk assessment	Energy shock and stronger activity lifted upside inflation risks.	July already judged risks tilted upward.	The risk distribution became more hawkish.
QT	Remaining gilt holdings to reach zero through a multi-year plan.	July had no comparable full-runoff schedule.	Adds a separate tightening signal.
Watch list	Energy pass-through, wage setting, expectations and second-round effects.	Same core variables, now with a much higher energy path.	Persistence could prompt a hike.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
BoE September Summary and Minutes	Bank Rate, vote split, energy risk, growth assessment and QT plan.	BoE September minutes
BoE July Monetary Policy Report	Central forecast, scenarios and monitoring framework.	BoE July MPR
BoE MPC calendar	Confirmed 5 November meeting date.	BoE calendar

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.