FOMC Bias Scoreboard - 16 September 2026

Overall bias

+9.6

Exceptionally hawkish hike

Unanimous action plus a materially higher rate path.

Funds range

3.75-4.00%

+25 bp

The first hike of the new tightening phase.

2026 rate dot

4.1%

Another hike implied

Up from 3.8% in June.

Next meeting

28 Oct

Confirmed

Minutes are due 7 October.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+9.6	16 Sep 2026	+8.9	11 Sep 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: the unanimous hike converts the earlier hawkish guidance into action, and the new dot plot points to another increase before year-end with no median easing in 2027.

Forecast signal: 2026 GDP was raised to 2.3%, unemployment cut to 4.1%, headline PCE lifted to 3.7% and core PCE to 3.4%. The combination gives the Committee room and reason to stay restrictive.

Why not +10: the statement did not promise the next move and the 2027 inflation forecasts still show meaningful disinflation toward target.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	+2.0	Unanimous 25 bp hike to 3.75-4.00%.
Rate path	+2.0	End-2026 median rose to 4.1%, implying another increase; 2027 median also stands at 4.1%.
Inflation outlook	+2.0	2026 headline/core PCE medians rose to 3.7%/3.4%.
Growth and labour	+1.8	GDP was revised up and unemployment down, reducing the need for support.
Vote	+1.0	All twelve voters supported the hike.
Conditionality	+0.8	No preset path and projected disinflation keep the score below the maximum.

Meeting Scorecard

Event	Action	Signal	Bias score	Read
17 Jun 2026	Hold at 3.50-3.75%	Hawkish SEP and press-conference reset.	+7.0	Very hawkish hold
8 Jul 2026	June minutes	Live hike case and concern policy might not be restrictive enough.	+7.6	Hawkish validation
29 Jul 2026	Hold at 3.50-3.75%	9-3 vote; three wanted a hike and Warsh reinforced the 2% commitment.	+8.2	Very hawkish hold
19 Aug 2026	July minutes	Several favoured a hike; many saw tightening as likely if inflation did not decline.	+8.6	Very hawkish validation
28 Aug 2026	Jackson Hole keynote	Warsh said the economy strengthened and summer inflation had not meaningfully improved the underlying trend.	+8.9	Very hawkish Jackson Hole
11 Sep 2026	August data	Headline CPI accelerated to 3.4%; payrolls rose 162,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%.	+8.9	Very hawkish validation
16 Sep 2026	+25 bp to 3.75-4.00%	Unanimous hike; end-2026 rate median raised to 4.1%, with stronger growth and higher inflation forecasts.	+9.6	Exceptionally hawkish hike

Forecasts / Projection Table

Item	September SEP	June SEP	Bias implication
GDP growth	2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.	2.2% and 2.3%.	Stronger growth gives room to tighten.
Unemployment	4.1% in 2026-28.	4.3%, 4.3% and 4.2%.	Less slack is hawkish.
Headline PCE	3.7% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028.	3.6%, 2.3% and 2.0%.	Near- and medium-term revisions are hawkish.
Core PCE	3.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028.	3.3%, 2.5% and 2.1%.	Persistent underlying pressure supports restriction.
Policy path	4.1% in 2026 and 2027, 3.9% in 2028 and 3.6% in 2029.	3.8%, 3.6% and 3.4% through 2028.	A substantially higher-for-longer path is the strongest hawkish forecast signal.

The September Summary of Economic Projections is compared directly with June. The end-2026 median of 4.1% implies another 25 bp increase from the current range midpoint, while the 2027 median shows no easing.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Action +2.0Unanimous 25 bp hike

All twelve voters backed a higher 3.75-4.00% range.

Path +2.0Another hike implied

The end-2026 median rose to 4.1%, and the 2027 median shows no easing.

Prices +2.0Inflation forecasts revised higher

Both headline and core PCE medians rose for 2026 and 2028.

Growth +1.8Stronger growth, less slack

GDP projections rose and unemployment projections fell.

ConditionalNo preset next move

The statement did not commit to the timing of another increase.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	16 September decision	Previous anchor	Bias implication
Decision	Target range raised 25 bp to 3.75-4.00%.	July held at 3.50-3.75% with three hike dissents.	Action realizes the prior tightening signal.
Vote	12-0 for the hike.	July was 9-3 for a hold.	Unanimity shows broad tightening support.
Statement	Activity solid, spending resilient, productivity and investment strong; inflation remains elevated.	July and Jackson Hole had already strengthened the diagnosis.	The statement justifies continued restriction.
SEP	Rate path, growth and inflation revised up; unemployment revised down.	June median rate was 3.8% for end-2026.	A broad hawkish forecast reset.
Watch list	7 October minutes, September PCE/CPI, labour data and the 28 October decision.	August data validated the hike case.	Minutes and incoming inflation will test whether the additional hike is delivered.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
Federal Reserve September statement	25 bp hike, unanimous vote and economic/inflation assessment.	Fed statement
September Summary of Economic Projections	Rate path, GDP, unemployment and inflation forecasts versus June.	Fed projections
September implementation note	Operating rates and balance-sheet implementation details.	Fed implementation note
FOMC calendar	7 October minutes and 27-28 October meeting schedule.	FOMC calendar

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.