No additional rate hike was delivered in July.
Overall bias
+4.8
Hawkish holdNo new hike, but FX/inflation defence remains active.
BI Rate
5.75%
HeldDeposit facility 4.75%; lending facility 6.50%.
Policy mix
Pro-stability
FX + inflowsRupiah support, portfolio inflows and market deepening remain central.
Inflation target
1.5-3.5%
2026-27BI wants inflation expectations anchored.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| +4.8 | 22 Jul 2026 | +7.2 | 20 Jul 2026 |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: this is a hawkish hold. Keeping rates unchanged removes the June action premium, but the official statement still prioritises rupiah stability, the inflation target, foreign portfolio inflows and money/FX-market deepening.
Dovish offset: BI also expanded liquidity incentives and measures intended to reduce money-market and banking-liquidity segmentation and support economic growth. Those measures make the July mix less restrictive than another rate hike.
Forecast angle: the next decision is scheduled for 18-19 August. Watch inflation relative to the 1.5-3.5% target range, rupiah pass-through, global uncertainty, portfolio flows, credit transmission and growth resilience.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Policy action | 0.0 | BI Rate and the standing-facility corridor were held. |
| FX stability | +1.6 | Rupiah defence is central to the message. |
| Inflation target | +1.3 | BI retained its commitment to keep inflation in target in 2026-2027. |
| Portfolio inflows / markets | +1.1 | New measures aim to attract inflows and strengthen rupiah stability. |
| Liquidity / growth support | -0.7 | Expanded incentives and liquidity measures soften the restrictive signal. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Meeting | Action | Language / forecast comparison | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | BI Rate +50 bp to 5.25% | Aggressive response to rupiah weakness and inflation risks; first major tightening shock in the sequence. | +8.6 | Emergency hawkish hike |
| 9 Jun 2026 | Off-schedule rupiah-support hike | Intermeeting tightening and support measures showed BI was willing to act outside the regular cadence. | +8.0 | Intermeeting hawkish hike |
| 18 Jun 2026 | BI Rate +25 bp to 5.75% | Pre-emptive move to maintain inflation in the 1.5-3.5% target and support rupiah stability; expected by most economists. | +7.0 | Strong hawkish hike |
| 23 Jun 2026 | M2 data release | M2 growth acceleration validates credit/liquidity vigilance after the June hike. | +7.2 | Hawkish validation |
| 20 Jul 2026 | Banking/PMI/business releases | Q2 loan disbursement increased, PMI-BI stayed expansionary and business activity rose; July RDG decision was still pending. | +7.2 | No score change |
| 22 Jul 2026 | BI Rate held at 5.75% | Pro-stability hold: rupiah and inflation defence plus portfolio-inflow and market-deepening measures remain hawkish, while liquidity and growth support soften the stance. | +4.8 | Hawkish hold |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Forecast item | Latest meeting read | Previous baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation target | BI framed policy to keep inflation within 1.5-3.5% in 2026 and 2027. | Prior meetings already had inflation in range but watched expectations and imports. | Explicit target defence is hawkish. |
| Rupiah / imported inflation | Rupiah stability remains a policy objective. | Previous statement language warned about global uncertainty and capital flows. | Currency weakness raises the score. |
| Growth | BI paired the hold with liquidity and credit incentives to support growth. | Previous meetings balanced growth support with currency stability through rate hikes. | Growth support lowers the July score. |
| July decision | BI held the policy rate and both standing-facility rates. | June delivered a 25 bp rate hike after May and off-schedule tightening. | A hold removes the prior action premium. |
| Current account / capital flows | BI added measures to increase foreign portfolio inflows and strengthen rupiah stability. | Earlier meetings watched global rate differentials and capital-flow pressure. | Active inflow support is hawkish. |
| Rate corridor | Deposit facility 4.75%, lending facility 6.50%. | The same corridor followed the June hike. | Unchanged corridor is neutral at the margin. |
BI does not present forecasts like a Fed SEP on every meeting page. Use inflation-target language, growth assessment, and rupiah/current-account projections as the forecast block.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
BI retained its commitment to keep inflation within 2.5% +/-1 percentage point in 2026 and 2027.
FX defence makes the meeting more hawkish than inflation alone.
BI is using market and flow tools to reinforce rupiah stability.
Incentives and measures to reduce liquidity segmentation soften the restrictive signal.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | Latest meeting | Previous meeting / baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Official action | The July meeting held the BI Rate and both standing-facility rates unchanged. | June delivered a 25 bp hike after May and off-schedule tightening. | The hold lowers the score from the post-hike level. |
| Governor / statement | The official release retained a pro-stability stance for rupiah and inflation while supporting growth. | June communication framed tightening as pre-emptive. | The mix remains hawkish, but less one-sided. |
| Policy instruments | Portfolio-inflow, money/FX-market and liquidity measures were expanded. | The previous score was dominated by policy-rate action. | Non-rate stability tools preserve hawkish pressure while liquidity support offsets it. |
| Watch list | Rupiah, global uncertainty, fuel/food prices, capital flows, loan growth and liquidity transmission. | The same variables drove previous caution. | A calmer rupiah or weaker growth would lower future scores. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Bank Indonesia 22 July decision | Official rate decision, corridor settings, inflation/rupiah stance and July policy-mix measures. | BI July decision |
| Bank Indonesia official site | Policy framework, BI Rate, rate corridor and governor communication. | Bank Indonesia |
| Bank Indonesia 2026 RDG calendar | Monthly Board of Governors meeting dates, including 18-19 August. | BI calendar |
Compiled 23 July 2026. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.