BoJ Bias Scoreboard - 10 September 2026

Overall bias

+8.8

Very hawkish pre-meeting chorus

Multiple members explicitly back further increases.

Policy rate

1.00%

Hold

Maintained after the June increase.

Vote

8-1

Dissent for 1.25%

Takata sought a further 25 bp hike.

Next meeting

18 Sep

Confirmed

September 17-18 policy meeting.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+8.8	2-10 Sep 2026	+8.5	27 Aug 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: the July hold was already unusually hawkish; September speeches from Takata and Masu broaden the call for further increases and lift the score to +8.8 before the decision.

Inflation path: headline CPI excluding fresh food is projected clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026, while underlying inflation and expectations move toward 2%.

Why not higher: these are speeches rather than a new policy action, and timing and pace remain data-dependent ahead of the 18 September decision.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	0.0	Rate held around 1.00%.
Hike dissent	+1.8	Takata proposed raising the rate to 1.25%.
Inflation outlook	+2.0	CPI risks are skewed up and underlying inflation is approaching 2%.
Path guidance	+3.0	Himino, Takata and Masu all reinforced further increases; Masu wants negative real rates addressed promptly.
Wages / FX / AI	+1.2	Wage-price interaction, yen depreciation and AI-linked costs support persistence.
Forecast relief	-0.6	Fiscal-2026 CPI was revised lower due to energy-relief measures.

Meeting Scorecard

Meeting	Action	Language / forecast comparison	Bias score	Read
30 Apr 2026	Pause / April Outlook baseline	BoJ watched wages, underlying inflation, and external risks while markets waited for timing.	+2.8	Hawkish watch
16 Jun 2026	Hike to 1.00%	Looked through softer spot core CPI and emphasized pass-through / stable 2% inflation.	+6.5	Hawkish hike
24-25 Jun 2026	Summary of Opinions / Tamura speech	Post-meeting materials reinforced wage-price path and neutral-rate normalisation; no new decision, but a hawkish validation.	+7.2	Hawkish validation
31 Jul 2026	Hold at 1.00%	8-1 vote; one proposal for 1.25%, upside CPI risks and explicit further-hike guidance.	+7.8	Very hawkish hold
10 Aug 2026	Summary of Opinions	Members stressed upside price risks, accommodative conditions and potentially faster hikes.	+8.2	Very hawkish validation
27 Aug 2026	Himino speech	Deputy Governor backed continued hikes and warned underlying inflation could move above 2%.	+8.5	Very hawkish speech
2-10 Sep 2026	Takata / Masu speeches	Calls for nimble hikes and prompt progress toward a 1.1-2.5% neutral-rate range.	+8.8	Very hawkish chorus

Forecasts / Projection Table

Forecast / projection item	Latest meeting use	Previous forecast baseline	Bias implication
Fiscal-2026 CPI ex-fresh food	Median 2.5%, down from 2.8% in April due to energy relief.	April median 2.8%.	Lower forecast is a dovish offset.
Fiscal-2027 CPI ex-fresh food	Median 2.4%, up from 2.3% in April.	April median 2.3%.	Persistent above-target inflation is hawkish.
Underlying inflation	Approaches a level consistent with 2% in late fiscal 2026-27.	April required more evidence of durable wage-price dynamics.	Greater confidence supports further hikes.
Risk balance	CPI risks are skewed to the upside; activity risks are balanced.	Earlier outlook carried larger two-sided Middle East uncertainty.	Upside price skew is hawkish.
Policy path	Takata called for nimble hikes; Masu said negative real rates should be addressed promptly and estimated neutral at 1.1-2.5%.	Himino and the July Outlook already pointed to continued increases.	A broader pre-meeting chorus strengthens the forward signal.

July included a full Outlook Report. Forecast comparisons use the April 2026 Outlook as the prior formal vintage.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Dissent +1.8Proposal for 1.25%

Takata argued upside risks required a nimble further increase.

Path +2.4Faster hikes may be needed

The opinion set calls for nimble adjustment and raises the possibility of a quicker pace than markets expect.

Speeches +0.6Broader call for prompt normalisation

Takata and Masu joined Himino in pressing the case for further increases.

Prices +2.0CPI risks skewed upward

Wages, expectations, the yen and input costs could push underlying inflation above 2%.

HoldMajority kept 1.00%

The Board did not deliver another hike in July.

Forecast -0.6Fiscal-2026 CPI revised lower

Government energy relief reduced the near-term headline path.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	Latest meeting	Previous meeting / baseline	Bias implication
Decision	Rate held around 1.00% by 8-1.	June raised the rate from 0.75% to 1.00%.	Hold lowers the action score, but not the forward bias.
Dissent	Takata proposed 1.25% because overseas demand and financial conditions raised price risks.	June dissent was concerned about economic damage.	The direction of dissent flipped hawkish.
Outlook	Masu said underlying inflation is very close to 2%; Takata described a new phase requiring nimble hikes.	The July Outlook and Himino speech already skewed risks upward.	Supports continued normalisation.
Watch list	Yen, wages, import prices and the 18 September decision.	September speeches validate the July signal.	The actual decision will reset the action score.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
BoJ July policy statement	1.00% hold, 8-1 vote and Takata's 1.25% proposal.	BoJ statement
BoJ July Outlook Report	Forecasts, upside CPI risk and further-rate-rise guidance.	BoJ Outlook
BoJ 10 August Summary of Opinions	Upside price risks, accommodative conditions and the prospective pace of rate hikes.	BoJ Summary of Opinions
BoJ Deputy Governor Himino speech	Continued rate increases, upside underlying-inflation risk and the meeting-by-meeting reaction function.	BoJ Himino speech
BoJ Takata speech	New-phase inflation assessment and case for nimble rate increases.	BoJ Takata speech
BoJ Masu speech	Negative real rates, neutral-rate range and further-hike guidance.	BoJ Masu speech
BoJ meeting calendar	Confirmed 17-18 September meeting.	BoJ calendar

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.