RBNZ Bias Scoreboard - 2 September 2026

Overall bias

+7.6

Strong hawkish hike + path

Second hike and a projected rise toward 3.2%.

OCR

2.75%

+25 bp

A second consecutive consensus hike.

June CPI

4.1%

Fuel-led

Above the target band, though core measures are softer.

Next meeting

28 Oct

Confirmed

Further action remains data-dependent.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+7.6	2 Sep 2026	+5.7	8 Jul 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: the unanimous second hike and a projected OCR rise toward 3.2% make the September decision a strong hawkish signal.

Inflation signal: annual CPI reached 4.1% in the June quarter. RBNZ expects core inflation, wages and expectations to be consistent with the target band by mid-2027 and its midpoint later in 2027.

Why not higher: growth was lacklustre in the June quarter, household spending remains weak and unemployment elevated; the Committee said the path is not predetermined.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	+2.0	Second consecutive 25 bp OCR hike delivered unanimously.
OCR path	+2.0	Central projection rises gradually to about 3.2% over two years.
Inflation	+1.8	June-quarter CPI was 4.1%, above the target band.
Guidance	+1.2	Further tightening may be needed, although the path is not predetermined.
Weak demand	-0.8	Lacklustre growth, weak household spending and elevated unemployment cap urgency.

Meeting Scorecard

Meeting	Action	What changed	Bias score	Read
9 Apr 2026	Policy already restrictive	Focus was on whether earlier tightening had done enough to return inflation to target.	-0.6	Dovish lean
28 May 2026	OCR around 2.25%	Domestic demand softer; inflation nearer target; external tradables risk still noted.	-1.4	Mild dovish hold
8 Jul 2026	+25 bp to 2.50%	First hike in the tightening cycle; stimulus reduction starts, but risk split and weak-demand pass-through keep it cautious.	+5.7	Cautious hawkish hike
2 Sep 2026	+25 bp to 2.75%	Unanimous second hike; OCR projected to rise gradually toward 3.2% as inflation reached 4.1%.	+7.6	Strong hawkish hike

Forecasts / Projection Table

Forecast item	Latest meeting read	Previous forecast baseline	Bias implication
OCR track	September action lifts OCR to 2.75%; the central path rises gradually to about 3.2% over two years.	July delivered the first hike to 2.50%.	A second hike and higher projected path are strongly hawkish.
CPI inflation	June-quarter CPI was 4.1%, partly reflecting fuel; core measures are expected back inside the band by mid-2027.	July estimated inflation near 3.9%.	Overshoot is hawkish, while softer underlying measures moderate the signal.
Non-tradables inflation	Still the key domestic persistence gauge to confirm whether the hike cycle extends.	Prior MPS rounds treated non-tradables as sticky but demand as soft.	Sticky non-tradables would lift the score further.
GDP / output gap	GDP rebound/export/tourism language is firmer than the May dovish read.	Previous meeting emphasized weak domestic demand and spare capacity.	Growth rebound removes part of the dovish offset.
Unemployment	Labour slack and weak demand still cap pass-through.	Earlier wage/labour pressure was a reason to wait.	A weaker labour market would lower the score.

The September Monetary Policy Statement supplies the current forecast vintage. The central OCR path rises gradually toward about 3.2% over the next two years, but the Committee stressed that decisions are not predetermined.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Action +2.0OCR raised to 2.75%

A second consecutive unanimous hike confirms the tightening cycle.

Stimulus +1.1Reducing monetary stimulus

Language around removing accommodation is a regime shift from the prior easing-bias setup.

Path +2.0OCR path rises toward 3.2%

The new MPS embeds further gradual tightening.

Demand -0.8Domestic demand remains weak

Lacklustre growth, weak household spending and elevated unemployment cap the score.

ConditionalPath is not predetermined

Timing and extent of further increases remain data-dependent.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	Latest meeting	Previous meeting / baseline	Bias implication
Consensus	The 25 bp September hike was broadly expected.	July began the tightening cycle.	The action validates the cycle; the projected path adds hawkish information.
Previous action	OCR raised to 2.75% unanimously.	July raised the OCR to 2.50%.	Back-to-back hikes strengthen the absolute bias.
MPS	Central OCR projection rises toward 3.2%; inflation is expected to return gradually to target.	July lacked a full forecast update.	The explicit path is the main score increase.
Watch list	Non-tradables CPI, unemployment, household spending, NZD, oil and the 28 October decision.	These remain the core reaction-function variables.	Persistent inflation would extend hikes; renewed demand weakness would slow them.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
RBNZ September OCR decision	Official 25 bp hike, unanimous decision and policy guidance.	RBNZ decision
RBNZ September MPS	OCR path, inflation, growth, labour and risk assessment.	RBNZ MPS

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.