Credit-support language is the main dovish impulse.
Overall bias
-1.2
Accommodative LPR holdSupportive loan-pricing backdrop, but no fresh July LPR cut.
Policy anchor
3.0% / 3.5%
LPR held1Y and over-5Y LPRs both unchanged on 20 July.
Growth focus
Credit
SupportiveCredit/property language leans easier.
Constraint
CNY
FX stabilityCurrency pressure limits aggressive easing.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.2 | 20 Jul 2026 | -1.3 | 6 Jul 2026 |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: PBoC bias is mild dovish because policy tools are still oriented toward liquidity, credit, and property-market support. It is not deeply dovish because the July LPRs were left unchanged and because the yuan and bank-margin constraints limit how far rates can be pushed.
20 July refresh: the 1-year LPR stayed at 3.0% and the over-5-year LPR stayed at 3.5%. Score moves slightly less dovish to -1.2 because support is maintained, not intensified.
Forecast angle: PBoC meetings do not look like FOMC. Treat credit growth, financing conditions, property support, reserve requirements, and LPR/MLF settings as the forecast-equivalent signal.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| LPR / MLF | -0.3 | Unchanged low funding costs lean supportive; a verified cut would lower the score further. |
| Liquidity | -0.5 | Open-market and RRR support lower score. |
| Property / credit | -0.6 | Credit impulse and housing support are dovish growth tools. |
| FX constraint | +0.4 | CNY stability limits aggressive easing. |
| Bank margins | -0.4 | Margin pressure can slow rate cuts even with growth softness. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Date / tool | Action | Language / policy comparison | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous fixing / operation | LPR/MLF watched alongside liquidity | Policy already leaned supportive through targeted tools and credit support. | -1.0 | Dovish support |
| 20 May 2026 | Fixing / policy read | Growth support remained the dominant objective, constrained by CNY and bank margins. | -1.6 | Mild dovish support |
| 22 Jun 2026 est. | Monthly LPR/fixing refresh | No verified fresh cut in this pass; support bias stays in liquidity/property/credit guidance rather than a confirmed price move. | -1.4 | Mild dovish support |
| 28 Jun 2026 | Official-site monitoring | No fresh LPR/MLF/RRR easing found; keep support bias, but do not mark a new cut. | -1.3 | Supportive, no fresh cut |
| 1 Jul 2026 | OMO No.125 | Daily open-market operation announcement; no LPR/MLF/RRR price cut, so support bias is unchanged. | -1.3 | Operational support |
| 6 Jul 2026 | Portal / policy-tool scan | No fresh LPR/MLF/RRR cut captured; operational liquidity support remains the signal rather than a new price move. | -1.3 | No fresh cut |
| 20 Jul 2026 | LPR hold | 1Y LPR unchanged at 3.0%; over-5Y LPR unchanged at 3.5%. Maintains accommodative lending rates without adding a new cut. | -1.2 | Accommodative hold |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Policy/forecast proxy | Latest read | Previous baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y LPR | 3.0% on 20 July, unchanged from the prior month. | June was also unchanged in this framework. | Hold is neutral-to-mild-dovish because lending rates remain low but no new cut was delivered. |
| 5Y LPR | 3.5% on 20 July, unchanged from the prior month. | Previous over-5Y fixing was also 3.5%. | No extra property easing; still supportive for mortgage pricing. |
| MLF / reverse repo | Funding-cost and liquidity signal. | Previous operations show whether easing is via quantity or price. | Cheaper/larger liquidity is dovish. |
| RRR / liquidity | Reserve cuts or targeted facilities are growth-support signals. | Prior tools supported bank lending and liquidity. | RRR cut subtracts from score. |
| Credit / property language | Support for credit growth and property stabilization replaces a formal forecast table. | Previous guidance emphasized targeted support. | More urgency is dovish for growth, but may raise financial-stability questions. |
| CNY / capital flows | Currency stability limits the pace of easing. | Prior meetings balanced domestic support with exchange-rate stability. | FX stress adds hawkish/neutral offset. |
PBoC does not publish a Fed-style forecast table with each fixing. This page uses policy-tool settings and credit/property guidance as forecast proxies; the 20 July 2026 LPR fixing is the latest policy-rate proxy captured in this refresh.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
5Y LPR and property measures are the housing-policy signal.
Liquidity support substitutes for conventional policy-rate cuts.
The yuan prevents unlimited easing.
Low bank margins can limit LPR cuts even when growth is weak.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | Latest read | Previous baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Market previews expected LPRs to remain unchanged, so the July hold was not a surprise. | Previous expectations often center on targeted property and liquidity support. | No rate cut can still be dovish if quantity tools expand. |
| Previous action | July LPRs held at 3.0% for 1Y and 3.5% for over-5Y. | Prior month also left LPR settings unchanged. | A fresh cut would lower the score; unchanged settings keep it only mildly dovish. |
| Communication | Score State Council/PBoC credit, property, liquidity, and exchange-rate language together. | Previous guidance emphasized targeted and prudent support. | More urgency around growth is dovish. |
| Watch list | 1Y LPR, 5Y LPR, MLF rate/volume, RRR, CNY fixing, credit impulse, property sales. | Same variables drove previous PBoC bias. | FX stress can block further easing. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| PBoC official site | Policy tools, releases, liquidity operations and monetary-policy reports. | PBoC |
| National Interbank Funding Center | LPR fixing reference. | ChinaMoney LPR |
| Xinhua / People's Daily July 20 recap | July 2026 1Y and over-5Y LPR levels and unchanged decision. | Xinhua LPR recap |
Compiled 23 July 2026. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.