PBoC Bias Scoreboard - 25 August 2026

Overall bias

-1.2

Accommodative LPR hold

Supportive loan-pricing backdrop, but no fresh August LPR cut.

Policy anchor

3.0% / 3.5%

LPR held

1Y and over-5Y LPRs both unchanged on 20 August.

Latest MLF

RMB500bn

1-year

RMB100bn below August maturities; broader medium-term operations still added liquidity.

Growth focus

Credit

Supportive

Credit/property language leans easier.

Constraint

CNY

FX stability

Currency pressure limits aggressive easing.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
-1.2	25 Aug 2026	-1.2	20 Aug 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: PBoC bias is mild dovish because policy tools are still oriented toward liquidity, credit and property-market support. It is not deeply dovish because the August LPRs were left unchanged and the yuan and bank-margin constraints limit how far rates can be pushed.

20 August refresh: the 1-year LPR stayed at 3.0% and the over-5-year LPR stayed at 3.5% for a fifteenth consecutive month. The score remains -1.2 because support is maintained, not intensified.

25 August liquidity: PBoC conducted RMB500 billion of one-year MLF against RMB600 billion of maturities. Including the month's outright reverse-repo operations, medium-term liquidity still recorded a net addition, so the mixed quantity signal does not change the score.

Forecast angle: PBoC meetings do not look like FOMC. Treat credit growth, financing conditions, property support, reserve requirements, and LPR/MLF settings as the forecast-equivalent signal.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
LPR / MLF	-0.3	Unchanged low funding costs lean supportive; a verified cut would lower the score further.
Liquidity	-0.5	Open-market and RRR support lower score.
Property / credit	-0.6	Credit impulse and housing support are dovish growth tools.
FX constraint	+0.4	CNY stability limits aggressive easing.
Bank margins	-0.4	Margin pressure can slow rate cuts even with growth softness.

Meeting Scorecard

Date / tool	Action	Language / policy comparison	Bias score	Read
Previous fixing / operation	LPR/MLF watched alongside liquidity	Policy already leaned supportive through targeted tools and credit support.	-1.0	Dovish support
20 May 2026	Fixing / policy read	Growth support remained the dominant objective, constrained by CNY and bank margins.	-1.6	Mild dovish support
22 Jun 2026 est.	Monthly LPR/fixing refresh	No verified fresh cut in this pass; support bias stays in liquidity/property/credit guidance rather than a confirmed price move.	-1.4	Mild dovish support
28 Jun 2026	Official-site monitoring	No fresh LPR/MLF/RRR easing found; keep support bias, but do not mark a new cut.	-1.3	Supportive, no fresh cut
1 Jul 2026	OMO No.125	Daily open-market operation announcement; no LPR/MLF/RRR price cut, so support bias is unchanged.	-1.3	Operational support
6 Jul 2026	Portal / policy-tool scan	No fresh LPR/MLF/RRR cut captured; operational liquidity support remains the signal rather than a new price move.	-1.3	No fresh cut
20 Jul 2026	LPR hold	1Y LPR unchanged at 3.0%; over-5Y LPR unchanged at 3.5%. Maintains accommodative lending rates without adding a new cut.	-1.2	Accommodative hold
20 Aug 2026	LPR hold	1Y LPR unchanged at 3.0%; over-5Y unchanged at 3.5% for the fifteenth month.	-1.2	No score change
25 Aug 2026	RMB500bn one-year MLF	MLF rollover was RMB100bn below maturities, while broader medium-term operations kept monthly liquidity additions positive.	-1.2	Mixed liquidity signal

Forecasts / Projection Table

Policy/forecast proxy	Latest read	Previous baseline	Bias implication
1Y LPR	3.0% on 20 August, unchanged for a fifteenth month.	July was also unchanged.	Hold is neutral-to-mild-dovish because lending rates remain low but no new cut was delivered.
5Y LPR	3.5% on 20 August, unchanged for a fifteenth month.	July over-5Y fixing was also 3.5%.	No extra property easing; still supportive for mortgage pricing.
MLF / reverse repo	RMB500bn one-year MLF on 25 August; RMB100bn below MLF maturities, but combined medium-term operations remained a net addition.	July MLF was an increased rollover.	Smaller MLF is a neutral offset to continued broader liquidity support.
RRR / liquidity	Reserve cuts or targeted facilities are growth-support signals.	Prior tools supported bank lending and liquidity.	RRR cut subtracts from score.
Credit / property language	Support for credit growth and property stabilization replaces a formal forecast table.	Previous guidance emphasized targeted support.	More urgency is dovish for growth, but may raise financial-stability questions.
CNY / capital flows	Currency stability limits the pace of easing.	Prior meetings balanced domestic support with exchange-rate stability.	FX stress adds hawkish/neutral offset.

PBoC does not publish a Fed-style forecast table with each fixing. This page uses policy-tool settings and credit/property guidance as forecast proxies; the 20 August 2026 LPR fixing is the latest policy-rate proxy captured in this refresh.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Credit -0.6Support credit and financing

Credit-support language is the main dovish impulse.

Property -0.5Stabilize property demand

5Y LPR and property measures are the housing-policy signal.

Liquidity -0.5Maintain ample liquidity

Liquidity support substitutes for conventional policy-rate cuts.

CNYCurrency stability constraint

The yuan prevents unlimited easing.

Margins +0.2Bank-margin pressure

Low bank margins can limit LPR cuts even when growth is weak.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	Latest read	Previous baseline	Bias implication
Consensus	The August hold was widely expected and extended the unchanged run to fifteen months.	Previous expectations often center on targeted property and liquidity support.	No rate cut can still be dovish if quantity tools expand.
Latest operation	RMB500bn one-year MLF on 25 August, using fixed quantity and multiple-price bidding.	August had RMB600bn of MLF maturities; other medium-term operations added liquidity.	Mixed quantity signal leaves the mildly dovish score unchanged.
Previous action	August LPRs held at 3.0% for 1Y and 3.5% for over-5Y.	July also left LPR settings unchanged.	A fresh cut would lower the score; unchanged settings keep it only mildly dovish.
Communication	Score State Council/PBoC credit, property, liquidity, and exchange-rate language together.	Previous guidance emphasized targeted and prudent support.	More urgency around growth is dovish.
Watch list	1Y LPR, 5Y LPR, MLF rate/volume, RRR, CNY fixing, credit impulse, property sales.	Same variables drove previous PBoC bias.	FX stress can block further easing.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
PBoC official site	Policy tools, releases, liquidity operations and monetary-policy reports.	PBoC
National Interbank Funding Center	LPR fixing reference.	ChinaMoney LPR
August LPR announcement recap	August 2026 1Y and over-5Y LPR levels and the fifteenth unchanged fixing.	August LPR recap
August MLF operation announcement	RMB500 billion one-year MLF operation and ample-liquidity rationale.	August MLF

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.