The 25 bp increase is the dominant hawkish signal.
Overall bias
+8.5
Very hawkish hikeA second 2026 hike with higher medium-term inflation forecasts.
Deposit rate
2.50%
+25 bpMRO 2.65%; marginal lending facility 2.90% from 16 September.
August inflation
3.3%
Energy 14.3%Headline accelerated from 2.9%.
Next meeting
29 Oct
Data dependentNo pre-commitment to a particular rate path.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| +8.5 | 10 Sep 2026 | +6.5 | 27 Aug 2026 |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: the delivered 25 bp increase, faster August inflation and higher medium-term projections lift the score to +8.5.
Forecast signal: staff project headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028; the 2027-28 path was revised upward from June.
Dovish offsets: growth risks remain tilted down, underlying inflation excluding food and energy was 2.4% in August, and the Council did not pre-commit to further hikes.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Policy action | +2.0 | All three key rates raised 25 bp. |
| Inflation risk | +2.0 | August headline inflation reached 3.3%, led by a 14.3% energy increase. |
| Forecast revision | +1.7 | Staff raised the 2027-28 headline inflation path. |
| Guidance / reaction function | +1.5 | Decisions remain meeting-by-meeting with upside inflation risks. |
| Growth risk | -0.6 | Near-term growth is modest and risks are to the downside. |
| Second-round evidence | -0.5 | The ECB said second-round wage-price effects were not yet visible. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Event | Action | Language / forecast comparison | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2026 | Rates held at 2.00% deposit rate | Pressure was building, but the ECB waited for more data. | +2.4 | Hawkish lean |
| 11 Jun 2026 | +25 bp hike to 2.25% | First hike since 2023; energy shock and above-target inflation outweighed weaker growth. | +7.4 | Strong hawkish hike |
| 18 Jun 2026 | Lane post-meeting validation | The chief economist defended the hike even after energy prices eased. | +7.4 | Hawkish validation |
| 23 Jul 2026 | Rates held; deposit rate 2.25% | Unanimous hold, but some governors considered a hike; upside inflation risks and energy propagation keep tightening optionality live. | +5.8 | Strong hawkish hold |
| 27 Aug 2026 | July account | Some members would not have opposed a hike; another increase is likely unless inflation improves significantly. | +6.5 | Hawkish account |
| 10 Sep 2026 | +25 bp; deposit rate 2.50% | Second 2026 hike; August inflation 3.3% and 2027-28 staff inflation forecasts revised higher. | +8.5 | Very hawkish hike |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Variable | September meeting read | Previous reference | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation | Staff project 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. | June projections were lower for 2027-28. | A slower return toward target is hawkish. |
| Underlying inflation | Ex-food-and-energy inflation was 2.4% in August; staff see 2.5%, 2.6% and 2.3% over 2026-28. | July underlying measures were mixed. | Persistent core pressure supports tightening. |
| Energy shock | August energy inflation accelerated to 14.3%. | July energy inflation was 10.0%. | Renewed propagation risk is hawkish. |
| Growth | Staff project 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5% growth in 2026-28, with 2026-27 revised up. | June baseline was weaker. | Resilience gives more room to tighten, though risks remain downside. |
| Wages / second round | Wage indicators are moderating and the ECB is not yet seeing second-round effects. | June hike guarded against broader pass-through. | No observed second round is a dovish offset. |
| October inputs | Energy propagation, wages, expectations, activity and credit will inform 29 October. | September delivered a new projection round. | High data dependence keeps the next move open. |
The September meeting included new ECB staff projections. The Council will continue to set rates meeting by meeting using the inflation outlook, underlying inflation and policy transmission.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
Energy, indirect effects and possible wage-price propagation remain central risks.
The 2027 and 2028 headline projections moved higher.
Headline HICP reached 3.3% and energy inflation 14.3%.
Wage and corporate surveys did not show a broader wage-price spiral.
Energy uncertainty, tighter credit and trade frictions restrain activity.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | 10 September decision | Previous meeting / baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Decision | All three key rates raised 25 bp; deposit rate 2.50% from 16 September. | July held after June's first hike. | Delivered action raises the score materially. |
| Projections | 2027-28 inflation and 2026-27 growth revised upward. | June supplied the prior staff baseline. | A more persistent inflation path supports restriction. |
| Path guidance | Meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach; no pre-commitment. | July account said another hike was likely absent improvement. | Preserves optionality but tempers the action signal. |
| Watch list | Energy prices, indirect effects, wages, inflation expectations, Q2 GDP, PMIs and credit. | June focused on the same shock through staff scenarios. | Propagation or expectations slippage would lift the score quickly. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| ECB 10 September monetary policy decision | Official 25 bp increase and new rate levels. | ECB decision |
| ECB September statement and Q&A | Inflation, growth, staff projections, risk balance and reaction function. | ECB statement and Q&A |
| Eurostat August inflation | Headline, core, services and energy inflation. | Eurostat August HICP |
| ECB Governing Council calendar | Next monetary policy meeting on 28-29 October 2026. | ECB calendar |
Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.