CBC Taiwan Bias Scoreboard

Overall bias

+3.8

Neutral-hawkish hold

Hold, but forecasts and credit data lean hotter.

Discount rate

2.000%

Hold

Secured loans: 2.375%; accommodations: 4.250%.

GDP forecast

9.45%

Up from 7.28%

Growth upgrade removes easing pressure.

Core CPI

1.90%

Up from 1.75%

Still under 2%, but revised higher.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+3.8	18 Jun 2026	+1.8	19 Mar 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: CBC did not tighten, but the macro forecast reset was clearly firmer than March. That matters because Taiwan is seeing very strong real activity and still-positive credit growth.

Why it is not a full hawkish signal: CPI and core CPI remain around, not far above, the 2% comfort line. The bank can justify a hold while watching FX, housing credit, and global energy.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	0.0	No rate hike or cut.
Growth forecast	+1.5	GDP forecast raised to 9.45% from 7.28%.
Inflation forecast	+1.1	CPI and core CPI forecasts both revised higher.
Money/credit	+0.8	M2 and loans/investments assumptions increased.
Level of inflation	+0.4	Inflation still near target keeps score below a hawkish-hike zone.

Meeting Scorecard

Meeting	Action	Forecast / language change	Bias score	Read
19 Mar 2026	Rates held	CBC forecast package had lower GDP, CPI, core CPI, M2, and credit assumptions.	+1.8	Cautious hold
18 Jun 2026	Rates held	GDP, CPI, core CPI, Brent, M2, and loans/investments were all revised higher.	+3.8	Neutral-hawkish hold

Forecasts / Projection Table

Forecast item	June 2026 forecast	March 2026 forecast	Bias implication
Real GDP growth	9.45%	7.28%	Large growth upgrade is hawkish because it reduces the need for policy support.
CPI inflation	1.91%	1.80%	Higher, but still close to 2%; mild hawkish.
Core CPI inflation	1.90%	1.75%	Underlying inflation revised higher; this is the key hawkish forecast delta.
Brent oil assumption	90	85	Higher energy assumption raises headline risk.
M2 growth	6.12%	5.27%	Money growth running faster supports the financial-stability caution.
Loans and investments	7.94%	7.04%	Credit growth upgrade reinforces property/credit vigilance.

CBC publishes a quarterly forecast pack, so the June forecast-vs-March comparison is the cleanest systematic bias input.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Growth +1.5GDP forecast revised sharply higher

A 9.45% GDP forecast makes the hold less dovish because activity is not the constraint.

Core +0.9Core CPI forecast moved up

Core CPI at 1.90% is not alarming, but the direction of revision is hawkish.

Credit +0.8Money and loan growth assumptions increased

Credit growth keeps financial-stability risks on the table.

HoldAll policy rates unchanged

The action itself is neutral and prevents a stronger hawkish score.

Inflation levelCPI and core remain close to 2%

The level is not high enough to force an immediate hike.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	Latest meeting	Previous meeting / baseline	Bias implication
Action	Discount rate held at 2.000%; secured loan facility 2.375%; short-term accommodation 4.250%.	March meeting also held rates.	Neutral action; no tightening delivered.
Consensus	A hold was the clean base case given inflation around target.	Markets were more focused on forecast revisions and property/credit language than on a rate surprise.	Hawkishness comes from the projections, not from action surprise.
Press material	Quarterly press material emphasized stronger growth, higher inflation assumptions, and continued financial-stability monitoring.	March assumptions were cooler across growth, CPI, oil, money, and credit.	The forecast delta raises the bias score.
What to watch next	Housing-credit controls, FX comments, and whether core CPI moves above the forecast path.	Previous meetings gave CBC room to wait.	More macro heat would shift the page from neutral-hawkish to hawkish hold.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
CBC official site	Policy decision, rate settings, meeting materials, and forecast package.	CBC
CBC Chinese press-conference materials	Forecast revisions and meeting communication context.	CBC Chinese site

Compiled 23 July 2026. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.