The delivered hike is the primary hawkish signal.
Overall bias
+7.2
Strong hawkish hikeHike plus further-hike optionality.
Policy rate
4.75%
+25 bpSecond hike after April.
Driver
Food
Oil/fertilizerInput costs lift food-inflation risk.
Guidance
More?
Hikes possibleGovernor would not declare inflation risk over.
Score History
| Current score | Score updated | Previous score | Previous score updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| +7.2 | 18 Jun 2026 | +5.2 | 23 May 2026 est. |
"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.
Bias Score Time Series
Readout
Bottom line: BSP is a strong hawkish hike. The central bank moved again and explicitly kept future tightening possible.
Forecast angle: for BSP, use the official inflation forecast/risk-balance discussion, not just the policy rate. Oil, rice/food, fertilizer, FX and second-round effects are the main score inputs.
Score Drivers
| Component | Score | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Policy action | +2.0 | Rate hike delivered. |
| Inflation drivers | +1.9 | Oil/fertilizer/food pressure. |
| Guidance | +1.7 | Further hikes possible. |
| Previous action | +0.8 | Follows April hike, showing persistence. |
| Growth offset | -0.4 | Domestic/fiscal drag prevents maximum score. |
Meeting Scorecard
| Meeting | Action | Forecast / language comparison | Bias score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | +25 bp hike | Initial response to inflation/currency pressure. | +5.8 | Hawkish hike |
| 23 May 2026 est. | Off-cycle hold | Intermeeting/off-cycle hold kept policy restrictive while waiting for food, oil, peso and second-round inflation evidence. | +5.2 | Hawkish off-cycle hold |
| 18 Jun 2026 | +25 bp to 4.75% | Energy/fertilizer/food shock and governor warning that inflation risk may not have peaked. | +7.2 | Strong hawkish hike |
Forecasts / Projection Table
| Forecast item | Latest meeting read | Previous baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation forecast / risk balance | Risk balance skewed higher by oil, fertilizer, and food prices. | April hike already responded to inflation/currency pressure. | Higher risk balance is hawkish. |
| Food inflation | Fertilizer and energy costs feed through agriculture and food prices. | Previous baseline had already become less comfortable. | Food-pressure persistence supports hikes. |
| Oil / transport | Oil shock hits headline inflation and expectations. | Earlier forecasts were less stressed by energy. | Oil shock lifts score. |
| FX / imported inflation | Regional FX pressure can add to imported inflation. | Previous meetings watched currency pass-through. | FX weakness is hawkish. |
| Growth | Growth/fiscal drag is the offset. | Prior meetings still had to balance inflation control against activity. | Growth drag caps but does not reverse the hawkish signal. |
BSP forecast detail should be updated from the official Monetary Board statement and inflation report each meeting; when no full forecast table is published, use risk-balance language.
Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit
The shock hits headline inflation through transport and agriculture costs.
The governor's warning keeps future hikes live.
Back-to-back tightening shows the reaction function has shifted.
Activity constraints stop the score from being maximum hawkish.
Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail
| Area | Latest meeting | Previous meeting / baseline | Bias implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Regional oil/FX pressure made a hike understandable; the guidance was the bigger hawkish point. | April hike had already shifted expectations toward vigilance. | Persistent-hike risk is hawkish. |
| Governor / press | Governor Eli Remolona Jr. kept open the possibility that inflation risks were not over. | Previous communications were already alert to food and currency pressure. | Press language reinforces the hike. |
| Previous action | Latest meeting raised again to 4.75%. | April 2026 also delivered a 25 bp hike. | Back-to-back hikes lift score. |
| Watch list | Oil, rice/food, fertilizer, peso, inflation expectations, and second-round effects. | Same variables drove April tightening. | A broader inflation forecast upgrade would keep the score high. |
Systematic Bias Checklist
1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.
2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.
3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.
Sources Checked
| Source | Used for | Link |
|---|---|---|
| BSP official site | Policy framework, Monetary Board statements and inflation reports. | BSP |
| Financial Times June 18 recap | 4.75% rate, oil/fertilizer food-pressure framing and governor warning. | FT recap |
Compiled 23 July 2026. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.