BSP Bias Scoreboard - 4 September 2026

Overall bias

+8.4

Very hawkish, inflation easing

Inflation eased slightly but remains far above target.

Policy rate

5.00%

+25 bp

Third increase since April; corridor is 4.50-5.50%.

2027 inflation

5.4%

Up from 4.5%

Persistent overshoot now extends well into next year.

August CPI

6.1%

Core 4.1%

Both eased 0.1pp from July.

Score History

Current score	Score updated	Previous score	Previous score updated
+8.4	4 Sep 2026	+8.6	27 Aug 2026

"Score updated" is the policy event, minutes release, or forecast vintage used for the current score. "Previous score updated" is the immediately prior scored event in this dashboard.

Bias Score Time Series

Readout

Bottom line: BSP remains very hawkish at +8.4 after a third 25 bp increase. August inflation eased only slightly and is still far above the 2-4% tolerance band.

Forecast angle: the 2026 inflation forecast dipped to 6.1% from 6.4%, but the 2027 forecast rose sharply to 5.4% from 4.5%. That persistence dominates the modest near-term improvement.

Latest data: August headline inflation was 6.1%, core was 4.1%, and year-to-date inflation was 5.2%. Transport and housing/fuel remain major pressure points.

Score Drivers

Component	Score	Why
Policy action	+2.0	Rate hike delivered.
Inflation persistence	+2.0	The 2027 forecast rose to 5.4%, while core inflation remains 4.2%.
Guidance	+1.8	Measured rate increases are intended to prevent further broadening of inflation pressure.
Previous action	+1.2	This is the third 25 bp increase since April.
2026 forecast offset	-0.4	The 2026 inflation forecast eased to 6.1% from 6.4%.

Meeting Scorecard

Meeting	Action	Forecast / language comparison	Bias score	Read
9 Apr 2026	+25 bp hike	Initial response to inflation/currency pressure.	+5.8	Hawkish hike
23 May 2026 est.	Off-cycle hold	Intermeeting/off-cycle hold kept policy restrictive while waiting for food, oil, peso and second-round inflation evidence.	+5.2	Hawkish off-cycle hold
18 Jun 2026	+25 bp to 4.75%	Energy/fertilizer/food shock and governor warning that inflation risk may not have peaked.	+7.2	Strong hawkish hike
27 Aug 2026	+25 bp to 5.00%	Third hike since April; 2027 inflation raised to 5.4% and measured increases remain part of the response.	+8.6	Very hawkish third hike
4 Sep 2026	August CPI update	Headline eased to 6.1% and core to 4.1%; both remain above the tolerance band.	+8.4	Very hawkish validation

Forecasts / Projection Table

Forecast item	Latest meeting read	Previous baseline	Bias implication
2026 inflation forecast	6.1%	6.4%	A modest downgrade is a near-term dovish offset, but remains far above target.
2027 inflation forecast	5.4%	4.5%	The large upgrade is the strongest persistence signal.
August inflation	Headline 6.1%; core 4.1%; year-to-date 5.2%.	July headline/core were 6.2%/4.2%.	Small easing trims the score, but both remain too high.
FX / imported inflation	Regional FX pressure can add to imported inflation.	Previous meetings watched currency pass-through.	FX weakness is hawkish.
Growth	Growth/fiscal drag is the offset.	Prior meetings still had to balance inflation control against activity.	Growth drag caps but does not reverse the hawkish signal.

The score combines the 27 August decision and forecast guidance with the official August CPI release. The next policy decision is scheduled for 22 October.

Hawkish / Dovish Phrase Audit

Action +2.0Policy rate raised to 5.00%

The third hike since April is the primary hawkish signal.

Persistence +2.02027 inflation raised to 5.4%

The forecast moved 0.9 percentage point higher and remains well above target.

Guidance +1.8Measured increases anchor expectations

The Bank is acting against further broadening of inflation pressure.

CoreCore inflation remains 4.1%

Underlying pressure is still above the 2-4% tolerance band.

2026 -0.4Near-term forecast edged lower

The 2026 average projection fell to 6.1% from 6.4%.

Previous Meeting, Consensus, And Press Detail

Area	Latest meeting	Previous meeting / baseline	Bias implication
Decision	Target RRP raised to 5.00%; deposit and lending facilities to 4.50% and 5.50%.	June raised the target RRP rate to 4.75%.	A third increase lifts the score.
Governor / press	Measured increases will anchor expectations and mitigate broadening price pressures.	June communications kept further action possible.	Guidance remains explicitly hawkish.
Forecast mix	2026 eased to 6.1%, but 2027 rose to 5.4%.	Previous forecasts were 6.4% and 4.5%.	Longer persistence outweighs the near-term downgrade.
August CPI	Headline eased to 6.1% and core to 4.1%.	July was 6.2% and 4.2%.	A small improvement trims urgency without changing the hawkish regime.
Watch list	Food/weather, fuel, wages, peso, expectations and the 22 October decision.	The same variables drove earlier tightening.	Further broadening would keep additional hikes live.

Systematic Bias Checklist

1. Decision vs consensus
Score the action first: hold, hike, cut, vote split, and whether markets expected it.

2. Forecast delta
Compare current official forecasts with the previous forecast vintage. Mark missing forecast meetings explicitly.

3. Language delta
Grade phrases on inflation persistence, growth slack, currency, financial stability, and path guidance.

Sources Checked

Source	Used for	Link
BSP official site	Official August decision language, current policy rate, July inflation and governor guidance.	BSP
BSP key statistical indicators	5.00% target RRP rate and 4.50-5.50% corridor after the decision.	BSP key rates
BSP August decision recap	2026/2027 inflation forecasts, July core inflation and decision context.	PNA decision recap
BSP August month-ahead forecast	5.5-6.5% range and food/fuel drivers.	PNA August forecast
Philippine Statistics Authority August CPI	Headline, core, year-to-date and component inflation.	PSA August CPI

Compiled 18 September 2026, 08:35 HKT. Market-consensus rows use reputable recaps where official releases do not publish expectations.